Inside this article
Copper ended the week with two signals that should not be mixed together. The physical market strengthened enough to push LME copper back toward record territory, led by firmer Chinese import demand. The futures market moved the other way: the latest CFTC report shows non-commercial traders materially reduced their net-long exposure. For CFD traders, that divergence is more informative than the headline 'copper near records'.
Reuters reported three-month LME copper around $14,521 per metric ton on September 18 after an intraday high of $14,572.50. The September 10 record was $14,875. Copper gained about 2% on the week even after the Federal Reserve raised rates and the dollar remained firm.
Strong physical demand, more cautious positioning
| Signal | Latest reading | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| LME Copper | ~$14,521/t | price still near records |
| Yangshan premium | $121/t | stronger Chinese import demand |
| Prior-week Yangshan | $85/t | sharp increase in physical premium |
| CFTC non-commercial longs | 117,165 contracts | bullish exposure still large |
| CFTC non-commercial shorts | 42,031 contracts | shorts increased week on week |
| Non-commercial net long | 75,134 contracts | about -18.8% vs September 8 |
The key point is that price is not rising because futures speculators are uniformly adding risk. In the CFTC futures-only report for September 15, non-commercial traders held 117,165 longs and 42,031 shorts, leaving a net long of roughly 75,134 contracts. A week earlier the net was about 92,476. That is a reduction of 17,342 contracts, or almost 19%.
Why China matters more than usual
Reuters said the Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of Chinese demand for imported metal, rose to $121 a ton from $85 at the end of the prior week, its highest since October 2022. High-frequency data also indicated Chinese demand for copper, aluminium and flat steel was 1%-2% higher year on year in the first half of September.
That adds a commodity layer to the two-speed China economy we recently examined: consumption and property remain weak, while manufacturing and industrial demand can still create selective strength.
The divergence is not automatically bullish
A strong physical market can support price while speculators cut longs, but it does not guarantee continuation. SHFE-monitored inventories rose 2.4% to 56,073 tons after three weeks of declines. LME curve conditions also showed less immediate stress than a true backwardation squeeze, while uncertainty over possible U.S. tariffs on refined copper remains unresolved.
The useful framework is conditional. If physical premiums remain elevated and copper holds near record levels despite lighter speculative positioning, real demand is absorbing part of the financial de-risking. If premiums fade while the COT deteriorates further, that support becomes less convincing.
What to watch next
Three variables matter more than a simple forecast: Chinese physical premiums, SHFE/LME inventories, and whether the CFTC net long rebuilds or keeps shrinking. Copper is near historic highs, but the quality of the move depends on who is actually buying.
Sources
- Reuters, September 18, 2026, Active demand in China sets copper on track for weekly gain: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40440143/active-demand-in-china-sets-copper-on-track-for-weekly-gain
- Reuters, September 18, 2026, Copper set for weekly gain as China demand offsets US policy pressure: https://www.brecorder.com/news/40440120/copper-set-for-weekly-gain-as-china-demand-offsets-us-policy-pressure
- CFTC, Futures Only Positions as of September 15, 2026, COMEX Copper: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
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