Nasdaq after the Fed: futures rise 0.96% despite the rate hike — what the market is pricing

The first morning after the FOMC looks contradictory only at first glance. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and kept the door open to more tightening, yet Reuters had Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures up 0.96% at 4:45 a.m. ET on September 17. S&P 500 E-minis were up 0.74% and Dow E-minis 0.66%. For CFD traders, the useful question is not why markets are ‘ignoring’ the Fed, but which pressures changed between Wednesday's close and Thursday's premarket.

Post-Fed snapshot

Futures and commodity prices are intraday snapshots and can change before the cash open.

Why Nasdaq can rise with a hawkish Fed

The quarter-point hike was widely expected. Once the event passed, investors could price other variables again. Reuters noted a softer 10-year Treasury yield and a second day of falling oil prices, both of which temporarily reduce pressure on growth valuations. That does not make the meeting accommodative. The FOMC said inflation remains elevated, and September projections show a median federal funds rate near 4.1% at end-2026, consistent with additional tightening from the new 3.875% midpoint.

The distinction is between the official policy rate and the short-term change in financial conditions. A technology index can rebound even after a hike if long yields retreat and the energy risk premium falls at the same time.

The 26,000 area is a map, not a signal

Before the FOMC, Reuters highlighted unusually compressed volatility in the Nasdaq Composite: daily Bollinger bandwidth was at its lowest in more than five years, while the 50- and 100-day moving averages converged near 26,000. The 26,725 area was the first notable resistance in a breakout scenario; below 25,910 and then 24,980 the technical picture would weaken. These levels were mapped before the decision and should not be treated as automatic targets.

The useful test is whether the futures rebound survives the cash open and holds around the pivot, or fades when Treasury yields and the Fed path return to focus.

Same Fed, different transmission channel

This morning we examined how Gold recovered part of its post-Fed sell-off. Nasdaq reacts through a different channel: the discount rate applied to future earnings and the premium investors pay for growth.

It also helps to compare today's move with our earlier article on the Nasdaq sell-off driven by AI slowdown fears. Same index, completely different catalyst.

Stocktwits: high attention, fragile sentiment

On the Stocktwits radar, QQQ has HIGH message volume with a score of 60, while normalized sentiment remains bearish at 30. That measures retail attention, not a confirmed breakout.

What to watch now

Three checks matter more than a forecast: whether the 10-year yield resumes its climb, whether oil keeps easing, and whether Nasdaq holds the premarket recovery after the cash open. If yields and Fed-hike odds rise together again, the rebound can become more fragile. If yields remain contained, markets can continue to distinguish between a hawkish Fed and financial conditions that have stopped worsening in the very short term.

Sources

• Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
• Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm
• Reuters, September 17, 2026, Wall St futures rise as Fed rate hike lifts long-standing overhang: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-fed-rate-hike-lifts-long-standing-overhang-2026-09-17/
• Reuters, September 16, 2026, Mapping the Market: Nasdaq may be ready to bolt: https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-technicals-graphic-2026-09-16/
• Stocktwits, QQQ pulse — used only as a retail-attention radar