Inside this article

LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed a measurable recovery in September, but not yet normalization. Reuters, citing S&P Global, reports 19 LNG cargoes during the month: 13 from Qatar and 6 from the United Arab Emirates. Kpler instead counts 21 cargoes, versus 15 in June.

The difference between the two datasets should not be hidden: different providers can classify and update vessel movements with different methods and timing.

September numbers

IndicatorReadingInterpretation
Cargoes according to S&P Global19highest monthly level since the war began
From Qatar13main share
From the United Arab Emirates6secondary contribution
Cargoes according to Kpler21alternative dataset
Cargoes in June15previous comparison
S&P scenario if the pace accelerates25%possible share of pre-war levels

Reuters also reports “dark” transits, with some vessels temporarily switching off AIS signals.

Why more cargoes do not mean normalization

More traffic reduces part of the logistical pressure, but it does not remove route-security, insurance-cost and strait risks. S&P Global notes that, if the acceleration continues, monthly flows could recover to as much as 25% of pre-war levels. That is a conditional scenario, not an outcome already achieved.

What changes for gas and energy CFDs

More Gulf cargoes can ease global competition for LNG, but Henry Hub, TTF and Asia remain markets with different drivers. This dataset complements our earlier analysis of QatarEnergy, U.S. LNG and European storage: that article focused on replacement capacity and inventories; this one focuses on observed physical traffic through Hormuz.

What to monitor next

Watch whether October maintains September’s pace, whether S&P Global and Kpler counts converge, and whether fewer ships make transits with AIS switched off. One better month is not enough to declare the logistics risk resolved.

Sources