Inside this article

The setup before the meeting

The October 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting comes after mixed signals. September NFP was +29,000 versus +90,000 expected, while August PCE showed +0.3% m/m and +3.4% y/y, with core at +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y.

What changed in market pricing

The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.34% before moving back toward 5.285% on Friday. After the jobs report, the market-implied probability of a 25 bp Fed hike in October fell toward 22.7% from 64.2% one week earlier.

Data, expectations, decision

Economic data updates the available information. Markets convert that information into prices and probabilities. The FOMC makes an actual decision on a specific date using a broader set of evidence. Fed comments this week stressed the need to see more evidence.

Why it matters for markets

For XAUUSD, EURUSD and NAS100, it is not enough to know whether a release is strong or weak: what matters is how much it changes the rate path already priced in. High yields, energy inflation and financial conditions can offset one softer release.

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Educational and informational content. It is not financial advice.

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